As we debate and assess the Republican candidates, I think it’s important to consider who the Democratic nominee is. I will be shocked if Joe Biden ultimately is the nominee. I’ve thought for a while that he won’t be, and I still have some hope that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee. But from the broad array of polls I’ve seen, I believe that the best hope for Donald Trump to win is if Mr. Biden is the nominee, and in the same way the best hope for Mr. Biden, is if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee. At this point, however, it looks like Mr. Trump is on his way. So why do I feel that Mr. Biden will not be the nominee?

• Mr. Biden is looking daily as barely having the strength to get out of bed. All the absurdities of what the press secretary says about how nobody can keep up with him are irrelevant every time he opens his mouth or anybody watches him move around. And he is deteriorating rapidly in my eyes. I don’t relish this, but it is the reality of life. All the polls suggest that everybody is fully aware of this great problem, one that is exacerbated by his foolish intersectional approach to his VP selection, as most Americans do not seem to like or respect his VP, who almost certainly would take over from him in any 2nd term, if he makes it through his first. This issue only gets worse with each passing day.
• The economy is slowly deflating in response to the elimination of the surplus stimulus savings, the inflationary induced higher interest rates, and the regulatory onslaught of the Biden Administration. This is exacerbated by the bad policy choices of the Chinese (whose economy is in slow motion implosion mode now as their credit bubble has burst) and the Japanese (whose currency manipulation is coming home to roost now with the tremendous interest rate differential between the US and Japan). The Democrats apparently believed that Bidenomics might work. If true, they might have a chance. But Bidenomics is a loser as judged by most Americans. Very doubtful that perspective will change.
• Real income is down for the third year in a row, as noted in my last post, and gas prices are rising as we speak. Mr. Biden’s foolish verbal attack on the Saudi’s without a concomitant plan to unleash American energy has put us (and Mr. Biden) in a precarious position. While I don’t think that the Saudi’s are limiting oil production now just to get Mr. Biden out of office, I do think that they enjoy showing Mr. Biden his impotence in their policies after he called them a pariah state. Most Americans probably don’t even know that the Saudi’s are driving up prices, but they know their gas prices are a lot higher, and Mr. Biden is generally against American fossil fuels. This is not likely to get better before the election.
• Even if we get rate cuts, they won’t come in time to change the underlying economy. I expect the Fed not to consider easing (absent some financial crisis) until spring at the earliest. And it takes time for monetary policy to have effect, so I don’t see hope for Mr. Biden here.
• Mr. Biden is personally unpopular. He is a congenital embellisher of the truth (that they laugh off as gaffes) with regular repeats of stories that everyone knows are untrue. Whatever you think of the Hunter Biden situation, it is a stench that riseth in the voter’s nostrils. Maybe not a crime, but it is corrupt nonetheless.
• One thing about the Democrats, they care about winning more than anything else. Once the Republicans lock into Donald Trump, I expect them to move in force to have Mr. Biden step aside. Pressure is definitely already there under the surface as reported from many Democratic insiders.

So who will it be? Conventional wisdom is that Mr. Newsom is lining things up, and that may play out. If he is the Democratic nominee, it would be very good for Republicans to put Mr. DeSantis in as the starting QB–I’ll take Republican’s running on the Florida record over the California record any day of the week. But my fear is that it will be Gretchen Whitmer, and then I think Nikki Haley is the strongest choice. The bottom line for Republicans is are you playing to win? And how do you pick your starting QB if Mr. Biden is not the nominee? I think Republicans better be figuring this out, because I’m now on record saying it won’t be Mr. Biden.*

* But He who lives by the crystal ball eats lots of broken glass!