Donald Trump has been consistently opposed to allowing Iran become a nuclear threat to the world, at least since 2011. Here at BATG, we’ve joined Mr. Trump in his hostility to Iran. Older Americans have lived their lives watching an Iran regime that is implacably opposed to the freedoms of the west, with the United States being the “Great Satan” and Israel being the “Little Satan.” We’ve seen chants of “Death to America” since 1979, and we’ve seen repeated Iranian fingerprints in the deaths of hundreds if not thousands of U.S. personnel (e.g., 241 marines in Beirut in 1983).* Iran seeks to dominate the world with their extreme view of Shia Islam theology, and that includes a stated goal of eliminating the Jewish state of Israel. Suffice it to say that Iran qualifies as a charter member of the Axis of Evil, especially since they have for decades been the largest state sponsor of terrorism. There might be some debate about the imminence of Iran’s threat to the United States, but there ought to be no debate about the dangers that Iran would pose to the U.S., Israel and the West in general should they get a bomb. Iran has repeatedly lied about their military and nuclear ambitions, and have cheated in every previous “deal” they’ve made. Further, their conduct during the war is proof that they cannot be allowed with expanded capability that nuclear weapons would allow.**

Yet Iran’s hostility to the U.S. doesn’t mean we should go to war with them. As always, the decision calculus is a measure of assessing the costs and benefits of such an effort. It also includes a consideration of just war theory; is action against Iran morally justified? Mr. Trump suggests his action is merely a reaction to 47 years of Iranian war with the U.S., and he notes that Iran has not only killed American’s before (three more were killed by Iranian proxies in early 2024), but with a nuclear bomb would be able to kill orders of magnitudes more. I am very sympathetic to Mr. Trump’s claims that military action was morally acceptable given Iran’s behavior. Further, there seems to be little doubt that both costs of inaction were rising (given how quickly Iran might have had a bomb) and costs of action were decreased (as their air defense capability was virtually non-existent after Israel’s campaign last summer). Iran’s link to China and Russia weighed against them, and coupled with Mr. Trump’s decapitation of Maduro earlier this year, you could envision a completely different geopolitical situation if Iran was defanged and it’s oil production controlled by a more U.S. favorable government. As we’ve noted before, Mr. Trump has arguably the strongest understanding of the economic power of energy production of recent presidents, and he is well aware of how critically dependent China is on foreign oil. Further, with the possible Abraham accord expansion in sight, you can make the case that the US footprint in the middle east could go down quite a bit if Iran was not the regional source of instability. Just as Russia is really the main threat to NATO, so too Iran is the main threat to the middle east. Was it the right time to declare war? The Democratic response (supported by most polling) is no. But one thing is certain in my view–the costs benefit tradeoff had never been more favorable to do so. If not now, when? After they have a bomb?

Some argue that without regime change Iran wins. Even if the regime survives, what the magnificent U.S. military has done has devastated their capability to wage war, and their economy is on its last legs (especially given its precarious condition prior to the hostilities). I can’t imagine anybody in the rest of the world thinking that Iran’s “survival” means they can feel free to antagonize and/or attack the U.S. Not for a minute does this increase the likelihood of a Chinese military action in Taiwan. No, on the contrary, Xi Jinping realizes the awesome capability of the U.S. military and the terrible price China would likely pay in any conflict with the U.S. So what next? Mr. Trump’s blockade on Iran is like a boa constrictor around a small animal–the end result is death if we keep the pressure on. The question is, do we have the will? We have already delivered a deadly blow to Iran’s threat to the rest of the world. But the biggest benefits won’t come with the regime still in power. Finish the job Mr. President; at least let Israel finish the job. I look forward to any discussion in the comments.

* Deaths attributed to Iran’s proxies in Iraq are harder to pin down but are certainly non-zero.

** Their attacks on the entire region’s economies, the revealing of their ballistic missile capability to hit all of Europe contra Iran’s prior claims.