The #1 issue this election is still “it’s the economy stupid.” And as we’ve noted since before the inflation really got going, this is one of the issues that can override the rationale ignorance of most voters. Neither spin, nor media deflection saying “you’re wrong, the economy is really great” is going to be effective. Nor is the claim “we’ve beat inflation” because the rate is below 3%. Even if we were below the Fed’s 2% target, that would still not be enough as going to the grocery store is a demoralizing experience for many lower income Americans. So this ought to be something that Mr. Trump can continuously pin on Ms. Harris’s watch, since she cast the two deciding votes to unleash the spending bacchanal which led to the inflation we’ve suffered from.

But this election also is something about the future, and Mr. Trump’s promise to raise tariffs by 10% across the board gives Ms. Harris an out–such a tax hike would increase prices further, in addition to decreasing output and costing jobs on net. A 10% tariff hike across the board isn’t quite as dumb an idea as Ms. Harris plan for price controls (which her surrogates are now trying to walk back), but it’s not far off that low standard. Further, it helps Harris/Walz to have something to talk about besides the Biden/Harris dismal record on inflation: “He’ll raise prices even further!” And they’re not wrong to claim this. Yes his pro-energy, low regulation policies (which will likely reduce prices significantly) would more than offset the higher prices due to tariffs, but it is still a massive tax increase, which will hit the poor people who shop in Walmart particularly hard.

It’s hard to imagine what voter block that Mr. Trump didn’t already have that he thought would be excited to vote for him based on this policy. Clearly Americans have always voted with their pocketbook that they prefer imports in many cases, which is why special interest groups push “Buy American” policies and tariffs. Left alone to vote with their pocketbook, many Americans prefer to buy their Hondas, Toyotas, and BMWs rather than Big Three offerings. And in the light of inflation, Americans’ ability to buy cheap imported goods in Walmart is one of the few ways they can mitigate the hit to their pocketbook. Does Mr. Trump really believe that increasing Walmart prices is going to help Americans or his own election prospects?

Yes policy does matter. The fact that the Biden/Harris administration kept most of the Trump tariffs (to our collective harm) doesn’t allow him to get off the hook, as he proudly claims to be Tariff man. Whatever good he thinks that leads to surely means he gets the blame of the negatives of tariffs too. Picking winners and losers with industrial policy is a loser when it’s done by either Democrats or Republicans.