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Trump Up, Trump Down

14 Apr 2022

Donald Trump continues to engage with the political process to shape things in a way supportive of his vision for himself and the Republican party. As much as I’d like to see him in the rear view mirror, he is certainly not giving up. Let’s all agree on this with Mr. Trump–he does have a bit of energy! So in the last 24 hours, there were two things that caught my eye. First up is a left-handed praise. I caught the tail end of Mr. Trump’s phone interview with Sean Hannity last night (go to 34:30 in this clip):

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6303875839001#sp=show-clips

Sean Hannity asked him if he were president again, what one thing would he do differently. Mr. Trump’s response, was basically the media is so corrupt that I wouldn’t talk to them, I would just focus on doing my job to fix the country. Mr. Trump does not show externally any real self-reflection, but to the extent he actually realizes that he would have been much better served to not constantly have a food fight with the latest young progressive reporter, there is yet a possibility a Trump II administration would be improved from Trump I. I continue to believe if he could have had that one modicum of self-discipline, he would still be the president today, and our country and world would be in a much better place than today with Mr. Biden. But since I find so much to disagree with Mr. Trump on how you should approach a conservative vision, I want to praise this direction, if we ever see him in office again.

Yet I think Mr. Trump’s influence continues to slowly wane away, albeit I have a confirmation bias strongly in this direction. Mr. Trump’s personal vitriol toward Georgia governor Brian Kemp, for Kemp’s refusal to endorse his stolen election fiction, seems to not have its intended effect. Mr. Trump made Governor Kemp a top target to take out after not displaying enough fealty to Mr. Trump after the election, personally recruiting the former Senate candidate David Perdue to run against the incumbent GOP governor. Of course, this Berean believes that Mr. Perdue would be Senator Perdue right now absent Mr. Trump’s post-election tantrum, and Mr. Trump’s action may lead to fellow lost election denier Stacey Abrams actually winning the governorship. But getting even with insufficiently pro-Trump Republicans seems to still be Mr. Trump’s top priority. Yet in Georgia, it appears that Mr. Trump’s influence is not as great as it once was, and Mr. Kemp appears be heading to defeating Mr. Perdue in the primary. Evangelical Georgian’s appear to be prioritizing political accomplishments since 2020 over grievance issues with the 2020 election itself:

In Georgia, evangelicals say they like Kemp’s successful championing of a bill banning abortion once a fetal heartbeat is present, his refusal to close churches during the pandemic and even his stance against statewide mask mandates. 

“Most evangelicals do feel strongly that Brian Kemp has delivered very well,” said Tim Head, executive director of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, a conservative Christian group. At a candidate forum for the coalition several weeks after Perdue announced his campaign, the audience applauded politely when he stood to talk. They gave Kemp two standing ovations.

“I think there is very, very strong support for Brian Kemp in his current capacity,” Head said. “In the primary and in the general election I would say they’ll be Kemp voters in 2022 and Trump voters in 2024.”

Mr. Trump’s policies remain popular (and I suspect increasingly so relative to the disastrous Biden presidency), and clearly there is still substantial personal support for Mr. Trump himself. But as every day passes, it is going to be easier for other Republicans to distance themselves from Mr. Trump and not pay the ultimate price, as voters are going to be much more focused on the present than Mr. Trump’s past grievances.