Here at BATG, we’ve been skeptical for a while that we’d see the Donald Trump/Joe Biden Round II. Too many Americans (typically around 70%) said they wanted another choice, and surely one of the parties (at least) would give it to them. My vanity and lack of time to create a more interesting blog post leads me to review a post from last September, where I asked Republicans to at least think about what happens if the Democrats jettison Mr. Biden, which I was sure would happen:

As we debate and assess the Republican candidates, I think it’s important to consider who the Democratic nominee is. I will be shocked if Joe Biden ultimately is the nominee. I’ve thought for a while that he won’t be, and I still have some hope that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee. But from the broad array of polls I’ve seen, I believe that the best hope for Donald Trump to win is if Mr. Biden is the nominee, and in the same way the best hope for Mr. Biden, is if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee. At this point, however, it looks like Mr. Trump is on his way. So why do I feel that Mr. Biden will not be the nominee?

…..One thing about the Democrats, they care about winning more than anything else. Once the Republicans lock into Donald Trump, I expect them to move in force to have Mr. Biden step aside. Pressure is definitely already there under the surface as reported from many Democratic insiders.

…..The bottom line for Republicans is are you playing to win? And how do you pick your starting QB if Mr. Biden is not the nominee? I think Republicans better be figuring this out, because I’m now on record saying it won’t be Mr. Biden.

Making calls on future political likelihoods is not exactly a profile in courage, but hey, I risked my whole BATG salary on that call!* But now we have Kamala, and the media is going to continue the full-scale adulation and fawning of the agent of change, conveniently forgetting her role on both the failed policies of the Biden/Harris administration and her previous positions. Numerous reports suggest that the campaign won’t engage in a debate about ideas in any adversarial position, and the media are only too willing to oblige.

And why should she? Mr. Trump has resumed–shock!–being Donald Trump, and is trying his best to lose the election. He seems to be turning his targets anywhere except where he needs to: an exclusive** focus on the Biden/Harris record and her (and Walz) failed policy positions. Mr. Trump knows the media is only going to report his excesses, yet he keeps giving them ammunition to change the subject (e.g., his foolish attacks on Gov Kemp in Georgia, a must win state that Gov Kemp won re-election in handily). As Gerald Baker in the WSJ says,

We need to be clear about the problem. It isn’t, as some have suggested, that Mr. Trump has been wrong-footed by the Democrats’ switch from Mr. Biden to Ms. Harris. Nor is it a reflection of accelerated degeneration. The Trump of the past few weeks has looked and sounded more or less exactly like the Trump of nine years ago. This is the problem. It is this Mr. Trump who lost the presidency in 2020. It is this Mr. Trump who lost the House in 2018 and the Senate in the Georgia runoff election in January 2021.

Why did he win in 2016? Because he was new and up against the most tediously familiar and disliked politician in America. Even then, he only squeaked past Hillary Clinton by a total of fewer than 90,000 votes in the three decisive states. All this explains where we are now. This is the same old Mr. Trump, but this time he is up against something the American people are being sold as new. Those of us who have paid attention may know that Ms. Harris is a seasoned hard-liner with extreme views, but most voters don’t. They see a blank slate onto which they are being invited to project anything they like.

Mr. Trump’s performances as he traipses around the country again are reinforcing the illusion of that choice. Instead of telling them consistently and repeatedly what they are actually getting if they vote Democrat, he is merely reminding them what they will get again if they vote Republican. (emphasis added).

This election is still Mr. Trump’s to lose, but lose it he well may.

* Yes the only reward at BATG is seeing open emails and clicks on the viewership tab I have! In addition, of course, to the wonderful dialogue in the comments section from you readers!

** Yes I’m aware that Mr. Trump is doing what I want him to do–prosecute the case against the Biden/Harris record by contrasting it with his. But he must be disciplined, as this must be the only message he gives. Anything else will be what the media blows up–his comments about Ms. Harris’s race, hannibal lector, Brian Kemp, etc.–that is the only thing that will be reported. And per Gerald Baker above, it serves to remind the American public about all the things they dislike about Mr. Trump personally. If the election is on the Trump presidency and policies against the Biden/Harris policies, he wins easily. If it’s a choice between two personalities, Mr. Trump will be a four time loser.