U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) declared his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination this morning. This brings the number of “declared” candidates to nine and we are still awaiting official announcements from Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Ronald Reagan’s re-animated corpse (campaign slogan–“Dead Right” or “Still More Charismatic Than George Pataki”).

Graham deserves better than both the headline and the introductory paragraph. He is a fascinating figure and I actually admire him. While that will win me few friends in the Republican Party, Graham has held down a South Carolina Senate seat as a moderate and he has done so, largely, with grace and wit. He is slippery ideologically, and that is not a bad thing unless you want your candidates operating by remote control. He is also an unapologetic hawk, even when it is unpopular.

Graham jumped onto the national stage as one of the House managers for Bill Clinton’s impeachment hearing in the U.S. Senate. He was brash, pointed, and prosecutorial. While his House seat was not dangling based on the outcome (unlike James Rogan), many Republicans (like Arlen Specter, that paragon of indecision) ducked L’Affaire Lewinsky. Graham did not.

Lindsey Graham is running probably for two reasons. One, he wants to publicly counter Rand Paul and his more isolationist tendencies. Two, he really hates Rand Paul. Well, one and two are quite similar, aren’t they? For those not paying attention, Paul and Graham have clashed over the Patriot Act, metadata collection, and foreign policy in particular. Paul argues civil liberties are under assault and Graham has largely responded, “better a crimp in civil liberties than another 9/11.” In reality, Graham can flex his foreign policy expertise in this field, which is sorely lacking in this area. If this turns out to be a contest settled on foreign policy, Graham might have a puncher’s chance. That seems unlikely, however.

I will be glad to be proven wrong, but I think Graham has little chance of success. He is a man without a natural constituency. He is not conservative enough to appeal to the right-wing, and others (Rubio comes to mind) are at least as hawkish. He is, in some ways, an establishment Republican, but he will lose that race to Bush, who is as Republican establishment as penny loafers and striped ties.

Blessings on you, Lindsey Graham, as you tilt at the presidential wind-turbines. Since you have a relatively small chance of winning, you should just let it all hang out. Hang politics, just say what you want. If you think Rand Paul is a know-nothing (in the metaphysical sense, not in the political party sense, of course), say it. Go Bulworth, but add in a little rationality. If you do that, I will declare your candidacy a great success regardless of the outcome.