Peggy Noonan, the speechwriter for presidents and long-time writer for the WSJ editorial page argued late last week that

I believe a big, big wave is coming, and I see it as composed of many colors—blue voters predominantly, but indignant red voters too, and disappointed Trump-base voters, many staying home. This is what I hope for: that it won’t be a close election, that the outcome is unmistakable. Let it be a clear and obvious rebuke—a rejection, a rebellion, a rout. If it is a small wave, stasis continues. We continue in Washington with the embarrassment of one party tinnily yipping about nothing and to no effect, and the other party showing slavish obeisance to a man they know shouldn’t be president. If it is a close election, there is no trauma for either side that forces it to change its nature. If Tuesday yields only a small wave, it will embolden and empower the president’s attempts to undo the results. He will try—he’s Donald Trump. They rigged it! We won’t certify!

I can understand this logic; I just believe it is wrong. If Donald Trump truly were on the ticket, then this might make sense. But no matter what happens on Tuesday, Donald Trump will still be president and whatever it is you don’t like about him, it will still be there. His abominable tariff policy will remain until the court strikes it down again, and then he will try another angle. The Iran war will continue to be fought on whatever terms Mr. Trump wants, with only minor changes on the margin as Iran is a real enemy. If Abdul Al-Sayed is a Senator from Michigan, he’ll be one of a hundred and will have the same political salience he has today–much on Social Media and very little on the legislative process. It’s been baked in since the narrow Republican victory in the House in 2024 that we would have a Democratic Congress, and that means additional dysfunctionality in our government. The Democrats will subpoena everybody and the Trump Administration will simply say “pound sand.” When they send over criminal complaints of contempt of Congress, the Attorney General will follow the Obama Administration’s strategy and ignore them. When they promise retribution on the other side, Mr. Trump will follow Mr. Biden’s lead and pardon all potential targets on his way out the door.

I don’t know what is going to happen Tuesday.* But whatever happens Tuesday I think the idea that we’ll get a significant change in Mr. Trump’s behavior is quite naive. However one thing is sure–unless the Republicans somehow pull a huge rabbit out of the hat, Mr. Trump will with each passing day become a more lame duck. Already you see Republicans out of necessity distance themselves from his worst performance–his tariffs, his conduct in the Iran War, etc. That is only going to accelerate going into 2028, and slowly but surely, Mr. Trump will fade and be gone. And I do not think anyone can duplicate Mr. Trump, even if they want to. The change Mrs. Noonan wants is coming, regardless of the outcome of Tuesday. Mr. Vance may indeed become the nominee (I’m doubtful) but he will not be able to pick up the mantle of Mr. Trump. And anyone else who comes in will have their own ideas, ideosyncracies and temperament–and I believe we will undoubtedly get an improvement in the latter.

And the Democratic Party is almost the perfect rejection of her thesis. While 2024 was not the landslide Mr. Trump continually protrays it as, it was nonetheless a good ole fashioned spanking for the Democrats. And to what effect? Did they learn a single thing? No, they have doubled down on all their unpopular policies, refusing to concede even on the men in women’s sports issue. And while they herald “affordability” as the mantra, their campaign, from President Obama to Kamala Harris to their radical candidates, is focused on packing the court (Harris), and packing the Senate (Obama, by making DC and Puerto Rico states). After the partial nationalization of our health care system via Obamacare led to even greater expenses in health care, their solution is to totally nationalize health care through “Medicare for All.” Not only do we not have the money for this, but explain again how more government spending will decrease inflation?** Under what scenario is giving them the reins of power a good idea? So the Republicans can rebuild better? Rebuild they will. Better it may be. But the long run is always just a series fo short runs. And in the short run, I am against the party that believes God is non-binary.

*My gut tells me this is not going to be the wave that everyone thinks could occur. Yes Mr. Trump is historically unpopular and mid-cycle elections are usually brutal to the party in power. But on the other side, there is a serious well-understood problem with polling, and Republicans simply won’t talk to pollsters. And the Democrats nominated several real skunks (just as the Republicans did). I suspect Mr. Al-Sayed and Mr. Talerico go down in their races (very well deserved however bad Mr. Paxton is) and I see a pathway to control the Senate for Republicans. But he who lives by the crystal ball eats lots of broken glass. Let’s all get out and vote on Tuesday. As always, we do our part and trust the outcome to He who lifts up some and humbles others.

** But this also applies to the Trump Administration’s absurd proposal to give $5000 to everyone in the country should the Republicans hold Congress.