If you had asked me two years ago, upon Trump’s election to the presidency, I’d have predicted the GOP would get blasted in the midterm elections of 2018. Of course, this has to be put in some context. As I noted in a recent post, we would expect the GOP, in a normal midterm cycle, to lose 25-30 House seats and 4 or 5 Senate seats. To get “blasted,” then, would necessitate a massive loss of somewhere between 40 and 60 seats in the House and 5-10 in the Senate. We would also expect to see the GOP lose significantly at the state level–gubernatorial, state legislative, etc…

Trump’s Republicans exceeded my expectations from two years ago, at least in part. As of now, the GOP has lost control of the House, though not by much (though the number could get closer to 35 as we finalize some districts). Republicans have managed to achieve a net gain of at least 3 seats in the Senate. The party did suffer at the state level. Democrats managed to flip seven governor’s mansions and a chunk of state legislative chambers. For the first time in a while, a majority of Americans will have a Democratic governor.

It was a bit of a blood-letting for the Republicans, but Democrats have to be disappointed. They failed to make Texas purple and saw media-darling and fundraising machine Beto O’Rourke fall short against Ted Cruz. They failed to win in Florida, losing the governor’s race and a Senate seat. Georgia appears to be safely Republican as well.

Ohio displayed some of the same hope and failure for Democrats. As I wrote earlier, the state appears to be tilting “red.” In order to stop that, Democrats needed to win some statewide elections and eat into GOP majorities in the General Assembly. Outside of incumbent Sherrod Brown hanging onto his US Senate seat, the Democrats lost consistently. They also could not flip vulnerable US House seats in OH-1 and OH-12. If Democrats were unable to drub Republicans this year in Ohio, when will they break through? Ohio may no longer be the bellwether state, but instead it feels like a reliable Republican bloc.

Though Republicans managed a respectable showing, there should still be concern surrounding the long-term costs to the party. Trump, and much of the GOP, went to dark places during the last few weeks. The basic dishonesty on the “danger” of an immigrant caravan, and the persistent stoking of racial divisions will make it harder for the GOP to be competitive in urban and some suburban areas. The growing divide between “town” and “country” voters cuts against the GOP in the long run.

At the same time, Democrats failed to clothe themselves in glory. The party seems intent on alienating anyone not connected to its coalition of “minorities.” The party’s decision to appeal to hipsters, socialists, feminists, and those at the cutting edge of the sexual revolution, will make it hard for the party to gain traction in massive parts of the electorate. Escapades surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation, though hard to quantify, may have cost the Democrats significantly. Casting a principled vote against Kavanaugh’s judicial philosophy, as opposed to evidence-free accusations, would have been far more beneficial to Donnelly, McCaskill, Nelson, and Heitkamp. But the woke base demanded a blood sacrifice. Additionally, the progressives’ casual willingness to dispense with things like federalism, the Senate, and private property might catch up to them because average Americans will perceive such positions as radical. The Democrats seem bent, still, on overthrowing the institutions of American government.

Expecting parties to absorb lessons, though, assumes too much. Parties as organisms have one goal–to win elections. They make short-term calculations to maximize votes in the upcoming election cycle. Neither party seems willing or able to consider longer term planning and messaging.