The NYT reported that it has reviewed Mr. Trump’s tax returns for years, and they suggest years of paying little to no federal taxes, as Mr. Trump allegedly uses money-losing ventures to offset earnings from other companies he owns, and he also uses his companies to fund his and his family’s lavish lifestyle. Mr. Trump, not surprisingly, calls this totally “fake news,” and suggests the timing is politically motivated. So what to make of this?

I am not accountant, nor have I seen the reports (I can’t get through NYT paywall, and NYT won’t release the actual returns–just trust them!), but let’s assume the summary reports are correct in what NYT alleges. There are several angles to this.

First, is Mr. Trump a tax cheat? Should he go to jail? Numerous Democratic politicians have been trying to get his records for years, ostensibly because we “know” that he’s a criminal enterprise. I’ve always been very skeptical of this, as I’m quite confident that Mr. Trump has never done his taxes, and his accountants would be on the hook too if they violate the law. That said, if you are rich and have the ability to fight the IRS (few do), you can be more aggressive in what you claim are expenses. There is a reason why we have tax courts. Even if the NYT report is true, it seems like the worst for Mr. Trump is that ultimately many deductions he took might be disallowed, but he’d have to pay interest and penalties.

Second, while I don’t think there is egregious criminal enterprise in Mr. Trump’s refusal to show his tax returns, I have never bought the line (used again this weekend) that he can’t release them due to the audit. I have always believed that they likely showed losses that would at least allow Democrats to use the info against him, “look he is a terrible businessman; he loses all this money, and you want him to run the country?” As if the public record weren’t enough on that? Mr. Trump has lost a lot of money (e.g., Atlantic Casinos) that we don’t need tax records to confirm. But he’s also made a lot of money in other areas. Forbes still reports him being the 275th richest person in America in 2019, with an estimated $3.1B in net worth. But pity poor Mr. Trump, much of his personal wealth is tied up in commercial real estate, which has been hammered by the Covid-19, so he’s lost a billion of that.

Third, the NYT chooses to release this report just a few weeks before the election. Why? Is there any reason other than they are actively behind the Biden campaign? Clearly this is not a new story–they’ve been pursuing it since he ran the first time. I doubt this report will get any traction, nor should it. At this point, as the old adage goes, believe none of what you hear and half of what you see. Yes if we have credible murder charges, but you get the point. This goes in either direction of course, believe none of what you read or hear about Mr. Biden without incredibly reliable sources, and even then be very suspicious. To Democrats that think we should pay attention to this, I remind you that Mr. Trump is only president today because of the partisans that had the “locker room tape” and did not release it early in the 2016 primary (when it undoubtedly would have resulted in another Republican nominee), but saved it for Oct 2016. Shame on those that have what they believe is important public information, but delay it for maximum possible political advantage. Do they have more on Mr. Trump than taxes this time? I certainly expect more October surprises to come….

Finally, what about the NYT releasing someone’s tax returns? Or even worse, not releasing, but releasing what they believe is the important summary information? As citizens, we are required by law to submit tax returns to our government, but they are to be used only for official government purposes. It is not an official government purpose to provide the president’s tax returns to a news organization that wants to use them to destroy the president politically. Do the ends justify the means? Shame on you NYT.