Tuesday. Wednesday. Thursday. Three days will determine the fate of the presidency. If the Trump Administration ends in disgrace, and that is a large if, these three days will mark the beginning of the end. If President Trump emerges victorious in 2020 and seizes another term in office, these were the days when the Democrats took careful aim and missed.

The facts are still unfolding, as are their implications. The current kerfuffle traces back to a July 25, 2019 phone call between President Trump and President Zelensky of Ukraine. During such calls, standard procedure is for a group of people to listen in, so the contents of these conversations are not fully private. A federal employee familiar with this specific call’s contents filed a “whistleblower” complaint with the inspector general of the intelligence community. Inspectors General are housed in government agencies to monitor behavior and promote efficiency and legality. This whistleblower has the cover of law to file such a claim. This path, no matter what people think of his or her motivations, is superior to the more typical method of contacting a friendly reporter on deep background to spill some acid into the press. The IG referred the complaint to the Department of Justice because the allegation involved possibly illegal actions. The IG also referred the matter to Congress. The DOJ decided the actions were not illegal, while Congress began to seek more information. We do not know the identity of the whistleblower. As news of the complaint began to dribble out, President Trump was pressured about the contents of the phone call.

TUESDAY

Speaker Pelosi announced the US House will undertake an impeachment inquiry of the President of the United States. For only the fourth time in our history, a sitting chief executive will undergo scrutiny deliberately designed to consider impeachment. This decision has felt inevitable, if not from the moment Mr. Trump was elected, then surely since the Democrats took control of the US House after the 2018 mid-terms. The progressive wing of the party, often at odds with Pelosi, has pressed for Trump’s removal. The Mueller Report did not light the fuse sufficiently, but Pelosi determined the Ukraine scenario did. This was particularly risky since the White House’s summary of the phone call was not yet publicized. Pelosi is too shrewd to move with such a lurking unknown, which suggests the Democrats were aware of the contents of either the summary or the initial complaint before she made the decision.

President Trump ordered the release of the memorandum, which would be posted the next day. Reports were emerging that the call involved pressuring Ukraine to do some political dirty work that might benefit Trump’s re-election campaign for 2020. Under questioning from reporters, Trump admitted that he delayed nearly $400 million in US aid for Ukraine several days before the July 25 phone call, though, in his words, there was no quid pro quo between the aid and the contents of the call.

The US Senate unanimously approved a resolution calling for President Trump to release the complaint to congressional intelligence committees.

WEDNESDAY

Social media exploded with the memorandum’s release. This summary is the product of those who listened to the call. It is, as many have said, a Rorschach Test, with readers placing on the document their attitudes toward Trump. Democrats took the summary as evidence of Trump using the power of the presidency to solicit personal, political benefits from a fellow head of state, President Zelensky. Many Republicans argued Trump did not threaten Zelensky and that his requests were either connected to US law enforcement efforts stemming from the 2016 election, or a product of Trump’s concern for corruption in Ukraine. Either way, Trump used his diplomatic role to pressure Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. Former Vice President Joe Biden is among the frontrunners to face Trump next November and he is widely considered Trump’s most difficult head-to-head challenge.

Congressional committees got the whistleblower’s complaint and off-the-record commentary bled into traditional and social media. Republicans seemed slightly more worried and Democrats a bit more encouraged after consuming the document.

THURSDAY

The whistleblower’s complaint was released to the public. The document does several things. First, the author admits the complaint is the product of second-hand knowledge as opposed to direct observation. Second, the author asserts many people were troubled by the Trump Administration’s handling of Ukraine before, during, and after the phone call between Trump and Zelensky. Third, the complainant notes the Trump Administration has taken steps to shield the phone call summary from observation, housing its contents in a Top-Secret/Code-Word server reserved for our most precious information. Fourth, there is a concern that Trump is misusing his personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, to carry out his political missions with the authority of the president behind him. Fifth, the complaint states the widespread concern about the suspension of aid to Ukraine before the phone call.

More than 218 Democrats in the US House expressed their support of the impeachment inquiry. Wavering moderates and freshmen in Trump- friendly districts were the last blocs to move.

What Does it Mean?

President Trump can claim to be uniquely hated and reviled compared to most of his predecessors. He has been subjected to continual threats of impeachment and removal since he took office. Perhaps only Lincoln, Hayes, and W. Bush have suffered under similar shrieks of illegitimacy. He has had a horde of high level leaks, an array of unflattering anecdotes, and a barely concealed rebellion in pockets of his own branch of government. President Trump has also labored under extensive investigations.

This is different. Trump’s own actions have spawned a scandal that could bring him down. These are serious matters for the following reasons.

1. The proximity of the phone call to the suspension of Ukrainian aid is damning. Given Ukraine’s continual vulnerability to Russian insurgents, any delay could be vital. The power differential between Trump and Zelensky meant that any request for assistance from Ukraine would be interpreted by Zelensky as a necessity if not an order. While Trump did not overtly threaten Zelensky or Ukraine, he made it clear the USA has been “very, very good” to Ukraine, the relationship has not been reciprocal, and that he needed a favor. Connecting those pieces makes Trump’s threats to Zelensky heavily implied. Any reasonable person would have interpreted a relationship between the request for a favor, the recent loss of critical aid, and the possible continuance of aid in the future.
2. It is possible Trump violated federal campaign finance law, which makes it illegal to solicit a donation (either monetary or any other thing of value) from a foreign entity. This is arguable, and even if Trump were found guilty, it is not unusual for presidential campaigns to violate election law and escape with a fine.
3. There is no doubt that Trump was using his role as America’s chief diplomat to pressure Zelensky for help that would benefit his re-election efforts. Aside from the potential illegality, this is an easy example of the abuse of power, which was a critical element to Clinton’s impeachment and Nixon’s resignation.
4. The complaint indicates there are a sizable number of intelligence professionals worried about Trump’s behavior in this situation. These people will become witnesses. Their notes and recollections will become evidence.
5. The House will eventually demand similar telephone summaries of phone calls with other heads of state. Trump will probably refuse to turn them over, citing Executive Privilege. This is a strong presidential claim that federal courts usually defer to, but privilege cannot be used to shield material relevant to a criminal proceeding. If illegalities can be established, Trump’s claims will be much weaker.
6. The decision to shift the information to a more secure location suggests the White House knew the potential problems connected to Trump’s phone call. The House will try to figure out if other summaries are also housed in that location. Again, Trump will claim privilege, but he can tie that to national security concerns, which strengthens his hand there.
7. The Constitution’s language for impeachment requires bribery, treason, or high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump’s actions could be considered a fit for the last category. His actions do not necessarily have to be illegal to merit impeachment, and some illegal actions would not rise to the level of impeachment. His behavior, however, makes him vulnerable. Expect at least some Republicans to reason through this publicly. Even if they don’t vote for impeachment or removal, they will still need to go on the record to explain themselves. This could create further divisions within the GOP.
8. As of now, it is hard to see how this amounts to removal. Democrats, if they stay unified in the Senate, would need 20 Republican votes to reach that magical 2/3 threshold. Unless additional information comes forward, that seems fanciful.

Much more can be written and more will emerge within the next few days and weeks. We are still far too early in the process to think about Trump’s actions in light of the Constitution. There are several unanswered questions–why did the DOJ dismiss the claim of illegality? what is Rudy Giuliani’s role in this? Has AG Bob Barr acted appropriately? Good public servants in the House and Senate should withhold pronouncements on impeachment or removal until they know more information. Trump’s actions, just based on what we know now, warrant further investigation by the House. Whether that investigation should lead to impeachment is a matter still to be settled.

One final note–the Bidens will not emerge from this unscathed. Hunter Biden’s wealth is often tied to companies and countries who need his father’s influence. While both Biden’s claim they never discuss this sort of business, those claims will be put to the test by somebody. Rival Democrats have a strong incentive to use this material to finish off Biden’s campaign.