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So why do politicians, left and right, want to emulate the Chinese on industrial policy?

29 Jul 2024

China’s economy is a mess. They created the world’s biggest credit bubble in history after the financial crisis, creating tremendous imbalances–vast overproduction in non-renumerative businesses. Their bubble has burst, and the millions of apartments built simply as a financial hedge, with no one to live in them, continue to decline in price. The vast stimulus to solar and now EVs is leading to huge bankruptcies. With over 200 EV companies, we’re going to see most of them fail over the next few years, especially as Europe and the U.S. are saying “No Mas!” to a new China shock. You could look all over at the Chinese economy to see the stagnation, but I have a very simple one for you. Consider the Chinese stock market compared to the U.S. S&P500 over the last decade and a half. A picture is worth a thousand words–the S&P500 is up 5X over the last 15 years, while the Shanghai index is basically flat:

The market has spoken loud and clear about which system of planning is most valuable: plans by the many (USA) vs. plans by the few (China). Yet despite the sheer waste and unremunerative investment that characterizes Chinese economic policy, politicians like Joe Biden, J.D. Vance, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders all want to pick their favorite industries to protect. Do we have to squander as much money as the Chinese have done?

Oh by the way, the national debt passed $35T today. How ’bout we just let American consumers and businesses decide where to invest, rather than the crony capitalists and corrupt politicians?