November is now not just a comin, it’s here. Americans have the chance to reward the Democrats for their performance with continued power, or they have the chance to fire them. We haven’t blogged much this fall about the elections, so this morning I’ll hit a few observations lightly. We can go more in-depth in the comments.

First up, despite the way overblown rhetoric from the partisan progressives, we’re about to see democracy work. People generally get what they want in our form of government, and when they don’t, they have an opportunity to take it out on the incumbents. We’ve already seen the dishonesty of President Biden’s “Jim Crow 2.0” rhetoric* over Republican voting law changes in Georgia, with record setting early voting, led by African-Americans. The Stacey Abrams/Biden Administration line is that high turnout and voter suppression can go hand in hand, although they fail to point out any specifics where this is happening. If the Republican changes to voting laws were intended to suppress the black vote, they have clearly failed. But as bad as the Biden rhetoric was over Jim Crow 2.0, the closing argument of the Democrats is a shrill “if you don’t vote Democratic, democracy ends.” In their calls to tone down the rhetoric while simultaneously saying if Republicans win we’ve lost our democracy, Democrats have taken cognitive dissonance to a whole new level. And I don’t think this is effective at all–certainly not at persuasion. As a partisan, I love this approach (given how ineffective it is), but as an American, I’m saddened by the continued decline in our ability to seriously engage in a civil debate.

Secondly, it appears the Democrats may yet regret what they wished for. As discussed above, the official position is that electing ultra-MAGA republicans will lead to a fascist dictatorship, yet Democrats spent millions in helping those same “election deniers” in the Republican primaries to win their party’s nomination. Now in the closing days some of those are on track to pull off an upset. Kari Lake appears likely to win the governorship in Arizona, after Democrats sent out a letter thanking her primary opponent for years of support. Don Bolduc is not likely to prevail, but has made it interesting in NH; I hope he wins. As we used to say in the south, we need to “break ’em (Democrats) from sucking eggs” for their mischief in the other party’s primary.

Thirdly, while Donald Trump will claim victory regardless of the outcome, his candidates are generally underperforming. For instance, here in a very red Ohio, while JD Vance is starting to pull away from Tim Ryan in the latest polls, he is far below moderate Gov Mike Dewine in his race. If Oz wins in PA (I think he will pull it off), it will be a narrow win, likewise Herschel Walker. It will not be clear at all that his endorsement helped in the general election, even though it clearly did so in the primaries. Further, after Mr. Trump’s humiliation of JD Vance, it’s not clear that any actual fealty will come from Mr. Vance. My sense is that Mr. Trump will be fading and not end up getting the nomination.

Finally, the economic point of view. We’ve discussed numerous times that public choice concept of rational ignorance, where voters are rational to not be informed about politics, since the costs to pay attention exceed any possible benefit (unless you’re a political junkie–which many are). This leads to special interests being able to drive their preferred policies over the general interest. Yet this election is where people are most decidedly not ignorant–they are well aware of the inflation hitting their pocket book, they are increasingly aware about the radical indoctrination coming for their kids, and they are afraid of the images of rampant crime. When politicians such as Kate Hochul in NY say she doesn’t understand why her opponent is so concerned about crime, she is showing how out of touch she is with a large number of her voters–hence the improbable possibility of a Republican winning the governor’s race in NY. Former house majority leader Dick Armey used to say something to the effect of, “Republicans are always afraid you won’t understand the issue; Democrats are always afraid that you will.” I think this election, far more than most, voters understand many of the issues. They are most rationally not ignorant.

* “So, I ask every elected official in America: How do you want to be remembered? At consequential moments in history, they present a choice: Do you want to be the si- — on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace?  Do you want to be on the side of John Lewis or Bull Connor?  Do you want to be on the side of Abraham Lincoln or Jefferson Davis?”