Tuesday’s presidential debate may have marked an interesting turning point in the election cycle. In perhaps the sharpest contrast so far, the relative moderates on stage–especially Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang–not only stood their ground, but attacked the progressives on all fronts. The wealth tax, Medicare for All, gun rights, foreign policy, and even impeachment revealed the fractures.

The harshest moderate criticisms were aimed at Elizabeth Warren, which suggests a sizable chunk of the field now believes her to be either the frontrunner or the most vulnerable of the leaders. Joe Biden has long been the target of choice for those trying to advance their candidacies through viral moments, but Warren assumed the position yesterday. This change also produced different divisions. Going after Biden probably meant accusing him of not being progressive enough (like Kamala Harris’s arguments around segregation) or as too old or out of touch (as when Swalwell took aim at Biden’s generation). Warren’s rise in the polls gave moderates the chance to attack her from the right, calling her plans a “pipe dream” (Klobuchar) or “punitive” (O’Rourke). While she did her best to defend herself, she seemed reduced to repetitions of “I have a plan…” Her toughest moment came when her rivals tried to force her to admit her health plan would require increasing taxes on middle class Americans. Instead of answering it simply, Warren continually pivoted to a discussion of costs, which provoked Klobuchar to exclaim, “at least Bernie’s being honest” when he admits he would need to raise taxes for the plan that Sen. Warren supposedly supports.

Ohio was the setting for last night’s debate, but unlike previous events in Michigan and Texas, the locale became a character in the drama. This fissure between the moderates and progressives was put in the context of practical politics. As Buttigieg reminded everyone, progressivism unharnessed will not sell well in the Midwest, where Democrats need to compete in order to defeat Trump. Andrew Yang said that driving a truck is the most popular job in Ohio, but the human element of the industry is at risk of becoming obsolete within the next few years as automation takes over the driving process. Trucks also don’t need convenience oriented truck stops or hotel beds to sleep in, so the ramifications will bleed into other parts of the economy. The Democrats understand they may be marching uphill to win Ohio next year, but a failure to compete in the state likely puts Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in jeopardy for the party. Can Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders sell their message to the general electorate?

Another interesting contrast emerged between the Senators on stage. As the impeachment process rolls forward in the U.S. House, Sens. Harris and Sanders declared themselves willing to vote to remove Trump from office if the time comes. Sen. Booker, to his credit, urged his colleagues, and his fellow partisans across the nation, to slow down and allow the process to unfold. Booker believes that as jurors, Senators should wait to see the evidence presented against the President before making a premature judgment. On the merits, Booker is correct. On the politics, his words were greeted with stony silence. Sometimes in current American politics responsibility comes with a cost.

Finally, the health and fitness of the candidates was addressed explicitly through Erin Burnett’s question about Sen. Sanders’ medical condition. Follow-ups were extended to Biden and Warren. Of the three, Sanders handled the issue best. Warren promised she was fit and would outwork everyone, while Biden promised to release his medical records. Without knowledge from the past few weeks, an observer might have concluded that Biden, and not Sanders, was recently ill. Candidly, the former Vice President did not seem well. He struggled to marshal his thoughts and was sometimes reduced to sheepish repetitions. Combined with the current focus on his son’s unmerited business dealings overseas, Mr. Biden’s campaign is skidding. The candidate who seemed most electable a few months ago may now force his fellow Democrats to reconsider whether he is best suited to take on President Trump next year.

This leaves us with a lurking question that may present itself in the next few weeks and months. Let’s assume that Biden’s baggage or fitness weigh him down even more and that Warren and Sanders are deemed too progressive by the “average Democrat.” Where do they go then? Polling suggests that Harris, Buttigieg, and O’Rourke are next in line. Of the three, I suspect Buttigieg may be in the best position to benefit from such calculations. He is polling well in Iowa. A win there might give Mayor Pete a track to the nomination.