President Obama’s Executive Order (which essentially places about five million illegal immigrants beyond the reach of federal law enforcement) is now, it seems, a matter of history. The media have, for a while, fixated on how the decision might influence current political dynamics, as opposed to examining the propriety of the act itself. Now that the decision is public, it is fair to ask what this means for the short-term political future.
Regardless of his motivations to help illegal immigrants, the political outcome might be to permanently hobble the Republican Party. How does it damage the G.O.P.?
First, it puts the Republicans in an awkward position with Hispanic voters by forcing them to object to Obama’s methods, which are likely unconstitutional, while trying not to offend those who benefit from the executive action. Rhetorically, this is a tough nut to crack.
Second, it further cements the relationship between Hispanics and the Democrat party by highlighting the act through controversy. If Democrats succeed on this front, the party may be able, over time, to make typically red states (like Texas and Arizona) more competitive, thereby weakening the Republican base in the South.
Republicans have a variety of options to counter the President. The congressional quiver is not, regardless how much members often protest, devoid of weapons. Here is a rough array of possibilities.
- Do nothing and say nothing. Let it slide. This does not seem feasible based on the anger already swirling in the Republican ranks.
- Say something and do nothing. Threaten action to appear tough. This may be enough to pacify some partisans, but those most critical of Republican leadership (think Boehner and McConnell) will simply have another reason to be displeased.
- Use the legislative process to frustrate the President’s ability to implement his decision. The primary avenue for this would be the budget. Congress controls the power of the purse and could pass budget resolutions to fund the government but not the relevant government operations needed to carry out the administration of this executive order (think DHS, ICE, aspects of DOJ). This makes good sense, but the President can simply veto any spending bill that crosses his desk that does not include such funds. If the government shuts down as a result of no funding, the President MAY be able to spin this in his direction. Then again, he may not. The GOP did not suffer dramatically from the last shutdown.
- Use other congressional powers to shut down the President’s agenda. For example, refuse to confirm appointments (judges, ambassadors, executive branch leaders), trade agreements, or any executive action that requires Senate confirmation. This is a muscular and confrontational approach. It runs the risk of being perceived as combative, though it might inspire the GOP’s own supporters.
- Use the impeachment power, but not on Obama himself. Pick lower level office holders related to this executive order and seek to impeach and remove them. Again, think of DHS, ICE, offices in DOJ. The chances of success are small, for Democrats in the Senate are unlikely to add the twelve or thirteen votes needed to remove a Democrat official, likely viewing them all as proxies for President Obama. This is unlikely to happen, though it would make for good theater.
- Impeach President Obama. Given the Constitution’s structure, this is the most reasonable response. He is, arguably, abusing executive power and usurping the legislature’s prime directive in the process. Republicans, however, are unlikely to have enough votes to remove the President in the Senate. Besides, what would the fallout be if a predominantly white party impeached and removed the U.S.A.’s first African-American in the White House? Ferguson’s racial tensions might be tame by comparison. This is not going to happen and probably shouldn’t happen given the low probability of success.
I don’t think there is an obvious GOP response. So, what do you all think? What should the GOP do? Should they respond? What do you think of Obama’s order?