Here is how I see it. For the pro’s, 1) she is alive and has energy, 2) her name is not Joe Biden or Donald Trump, 3) the media can now joyfully promote her without feeling any guilt of being part of the big lie, 4) there are a lot of people who really dislike Donald Trump (beyond the partisan Democrats). For the con’s, 1) She can’t escape any of the bad policy ideas of Joe Biden, especially immigration, 2) she has historically been a very bad politician, elevated only by connectedness with Democratic elites in safe areas, 3) she is unpopular with many–and it’s hard to see this changing despite the best effort of the press, 4) Identity politics is trump within the Democratic party, but not with the broader electorate.

Can she beat Donald Trump? Yes. Could Joe Biden have beaten Mr. Trump? I don’t think so. I see the distribution of possible outcomes as wider (the variance has increased). She might be able to squeak out a win against Mr. Trump, but she could also be blown out (much worse than Biden). Her mean outcome is still below Mr. Trump, and probably lower than Mr. Biden’s, but that doesn’t mean she can’t win. What do you think? Love to read your comments.