Well, I thought it might be historic. It is, and the party nominee has not even taken the floor yet.

Ted Cruz finished second in the G.O.P. nomination campaign and was booed off the floor of the convention last night. John Kasich, the host Governor and also a presidential candidate, has not darkened the door of the Q here in Cleveland. The New York Times broke a story yesterday that Kasich had been offered the vice presidency and control of both foreign and domestic policy. When the Trump camp was asked what President Trump would do in such circumstances, the response was, he will be busy “making America great again.” The Republican Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, and chair of the convention, has sometimes come off like a character from The Manchurian Candidate, “Donald Trump is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.” Blank glaze to follow. The cinematic backdrop for the speakers short-circuited on Wednesday evening, choosing to cease existence rather than witness the calamity before it.

But at least part of the mess was, I think, a deliberate calculation masquerading as an accident. While the struggle for the heart, soul, and mind of the G.O.P. is real, some of the trappings yesterday were false. Let me explain.

Modern political conventions are set pieces. They are scripted and produced. There is very little that is natural or organic about them. For viewers, to see the floor come unglued when Cruz refused to endorse Trump, it felt genuine and passionate. The evidence suggests it was a constructed event, designed to achieve the goals of all parties involved. I don’t say this to minimize the importance of what we saw, or to suggest the struggle is only political theater. The struggle is about beliefs and power, some of the key ingredients to politics.

We know the Trump campaign had Cruz’s remarks ahead of time. We also know, according to media outlets that also got them, that he did not deviate from his remarks, so the Trump campaign knew of the non-endorsement before it happened. Word spreading around the convention, from people I trust, is that the Trump campaign whipped* the delegates into booing Cruz and chanting “Endorse Trump” during the end of his speech.

I could be wrong, but it is possible Cruz was surprised by the extent of the reaction against him, but he did not appear shaken by the booing itself. He likely expected it, and at least to my eye, he seemed to revel in it a bit.

Why would both parties go through with this? Cruz appears to have been shoved out of his party’s convention (“look, even the delegates hate him!”), while Trump seems to be presiding over a crumbling party that is losing support from the conservative (Cruz) and moderate (Kasich) wings.

Whenever you have a question about why a politician did something, the simplest explanation is that they did it to further their own objectives. Once you understand their objectives, their actions often make more sense. What are the goals at work for Cruz and Trump?

Cruz is already running his 2020 campaign. He did not endorse Trump because to do so makes it harder for him to become president. If Trump presides over a Republican victory, Cruz knows his best chance for the White House would probably not come again until 2024 or 2028. A unified party is a stronger party and more likely to defeat Mrs. Clinton in November, so it is in his interest to weaken the party’s chances, especially if a Trump victory redefines the party in a way that disconnects Cruz and his ideology from the G.O.P. Such a disconnection would further reduce Cruz’s influence and prospects in the future. I don’t say this to criticize Cruz, or to suggest he is devoid of principle. On the contrary, I think he has strong beliefs and principles. He is convinced that his principles will be sacrificed in a Trump dominated Republican Party, so not only his ambition, but his beliefs will suffer. The party’s vitality, at least in the short run, is less critical than the durability of his beliefs and ambitions, which are joined together in his mind. He is gambling on a Trump loss and on his own ability to walk in, as the party’s conscience, and pick up the pieces that are left.

For Trump, this gave him the chance to symbolically purge Cruz from the party itself. Shouting him down and eventually off the stage solidifies Trump’s influence over the party, and severs the #NeverTrump movement once and for all. Finally, Donald Trump understands the importance of drama. There are heroes and villains and conflict. The narrative from last night’s drama puts Trump and his heavy majority in the white hats and fits Cruz and his coterie in the black hats. Perhaps most critically, if this campaign has taught Trump anything, conflict and controversy guarantee news coverage, attention, rising poll numbers, and success. Like his foray into the WWE, Trump does not see disunity as a stain on his brand, not if he can come out on top. For Trump, last night, in his mind, put him closer to the White House and cemented his stance as a Republican heavyweight.**

Now, let’s take a step back to evaluate the propriety (not rationality) of Cruz’s choice not only to withhold his endorsement, but to speak at the convention. First, Cruz pledged throughout the campaign to support the G.O.P.’s nominee. Last night, he broke that pledge. He encouraged viewers to support the “party’s values” up and down the ticket. He told voters to act based upon conscience, but, of course, conscience is a loaded word in this context. Conscience here is synonymous with the #NeverTrump movement, which tried to insert conscience language into the party’s rules to unbind delegates.

But, to be fair, when Cruz initially made those pledges, he could not foresee how the campaign would finally unfold. He likely assumed that Trump would implode. Also, this was before Trump’s knives came out for Cruz, his wife, Heidi, or even his father. Remember, Trump claimed Cruz’s dad was connected to the Kennedy assassination. Trump went hard after “Lyin’ Ted” and stepped over most of the lines we have drawn around “normal” political campaigns.

Putting all of this together, it’s easy to see how Cruz arrived at his decision, but Cruz’s gamble comes with potential costs. His actions might alienate loyal partisans, not only at this convention–remember, the delegates represent a main component of core activists within the party–but also those at home–voters, volunteers, and donors. I am guessing that if push comes to shove, Cruz may be willing to move past the party if the G.O.P. will not bend in his direction. He may have company in that choice, but he may not.

As for Trump, the benefits are fairly clear, but what of the costs? Trump may have miscalculated Cruz’s support across the country. Seeing him booed off the stage could harden the #NeverTrump movement. Also, the appearance of party disharmony might dramatically limit Trump’s ability to appeal to either undecided or moderate or independent voters. These actions further the impression that division follows Trump, and that could scare away potential voters. From what I can tell, Trump’s people think that his political incorrectness and his brashness are not detriments, but benefits, so whatever losses that might occur should be offset by his appeal based on those attributes, at least in their minds.

Of course, Trump still has one major card left to play this week. He gets the podium and the whole world will watch, which is just what he wants. Last night made tonight must see tv. Do you think Donald is smiling?

*Whipping refers to the legislative practice of using a variety of means to encourage support or a vote on a bill. The word “whip” descends to us from English hunting traditions. As the aristocrats would take to their horses to hunt the foxes, dogs were used to chase the prey.  To be effective, the dogs had to chase in a horizontal line. They had to stay in formation. “Whippers” positioned themselves at the ends of these lines and used whips and riding crops to keep the hounds on task. Whipping legislatively or politically comes in many forms. It can be coercive and threatening or it can be based on positive incentives, but the goal is the same. Manafort has the whip hand for the Trump campaign.

**The bit characters make sense here as well. Kasich has the same goals as Cruz and has determined his absence is the shortest route to his goals. Also, the leak to the Times about the VP offer only damages Trump and the party, which is fine for Kasich in the short term. (Again, I am not suggesting there are no principles at work here, but the actions and principles work together.) Pence and Ryan, both Reagan conservatives, have calculated that their beliefs are more likely to be implemented via a Trump presidency as opposed to any other vehicle, so they have supported Trump and will continue to do so. It also furthers Pence’s career goals (also to become president), and Ryan’s objectives, which are more policy minded. He is already in the best position to turn his ideals into reality, but he needs a Republican president to make that happen. Trump is the only alternative, so party loyalty is the best choice, even if it is painful.