Saturday’s shocking nighttime bagging of Nicholas Maduro was not surprising; indeed it was only a matter of time given the ever-increasing pressure Mr. Trump was putting in the Caribbean. The operation has Marco Rubio’s fingerprints all over it, and while drugs might be the overriding stated concern for Mr. Trump, regime change has always been part of Mr. Rubio’s hopes for Venezuela. The almost flawless military operation was amazing, but not surprising. As I’ve said before, the U.S. military is the only military force in the world that can project power and carry on sophisticated joint operations anywhere in the world. We have the best weapons, the best trained military personnel, and the best infrastructure to complete any required operations. So hats off to the finest men and women in uniform in the world! But what was shocking, which had me almost fall off my chair during the press conference Saturday, was Mr. Trump’s forthright statement that we’re now going to run Venezuela! There seems to be no question, despite Democrat’s protests, that the administration is on sound legal and constitutional authority to do the initial operation. And unless the Congress objects, I don’t see any real impediments to him doing any sort of Phase II. This is obviously an evolving issue, so for this I just want to highlight two things.*

First, which I wrote about in the aftermath of the Iran bombing, is that Mr. Trump has once again shown the conservative leftists that the application of military power abroad is a vital tool in the toolkit of American power in pursuit of American interests. Yes, conservatives have always been America First, the only debate is the extent at which application of power abroad is in the vital interests of America. The isolationists in the MAGA movement, just like the Democrats, can only watch and see if the Trump administration stumbles in the follow on action in Venezuela. If it becomes a debacle they can once again be on the attack. If it goes well, as I hope and pray it does, the strategic positive consequences may well be the death knell for the isolationist conservative leftists. As always, we tend to go from one ditch (the neocon idealistic idea that we can remake the middle east into western democracies through military action) to the other ditch (that foreign entanglements are forever wars and never in our strategic interest). Yet there are middle paths which conservativism has always held, and prudence is needed. But as the WSJ said this weekend, with Mr. Trump’s decisive action in Venezuela, we’re all neocons now.

But this is just the minor political point. The second and far away the most important discussion is on the potential strategic change for the world. Not only did we apply force to get Maduro, but we are going to have a form of nation building right here from within the MAGA movement! Here at BATG, I’ve suggested that nation building on the left and the right is a fool’s errand. And Mr. Trump has engaged in the riskiest move in his presidency with this move. Yet I am willing to give him more room than usual on this point as the risk/reward tradeoff here is incredibly high. Not because there aren’t huge risks–the critics are right. But the rewards are so massive. This begins by Mr. Trump’s willingness to say out loud what everyone knows–oil is power. We have all watched Europe spiral down, for many reasons, and their suicidal embrace of radical environmentalism has been a key part of their economic collapse. Now the U.S. does not remotely need Venezuelan oil. But China does. Big time. And China gets another large chunk of it’s oil from Iran. And Iran now not only has to fear the riots and additional bombing from Israel and the U.S., it now very seriously has to consider that Mr. Trump may do as he said in his recent Truth Social post, that he will send the U.S. in to support the Iranian protestors if the Mullahs have a vicious attack on their citizens. There is a real possibility of regime change in Iran too–and if that happens, it will not likely be by a bloc that wants to continue sponsoring terrorism across the world. We often hear it’s better to have the devil you know than the one you don’t know. In Iran’s case, we can’t do worse than the current regime. And if we get a friendly government to arise, such as potentially the Shah’s son, we have just drastically reduced China’s ability to take over Taiwan, as the U.S. and it’s new allies in Venezuela and Iran, plus a renewed relationship with the Saudis could threaten to suck out the lifeblood of China in any conflict. Oil is power, and will be for at least the next 30 years, and Mr. Trump knows this. And China does too.

And then there is Russia. We destroyed the Soviet Union through a deal with the Saudis to rapidly bring down oil prices in 1986, and if we can get Venezuela pumping out massive amounts of oil in the near term, we could similarly starve Russia of the only source of money it has to keep attacking Ukraine and threatening its neighbors. Given Mr. Trump’s tariffs (which are and will continue to slightly increase prices), this also is the only way to bring down prices significantly to American consumers. Yes oil is a much smaller input into prices than it was in years past, but it is still important. And if gas was under $2 a gallon, you’d find a lot more optimism in the public. If we can get oil down under $40/barrel, Russia is done.

And then there is Cuba. Cuba has essentially been the police state for Venezuela for decades with Chavez and Maduro, and has depended on Venezuela for its oil to survive. Russia can’t help any of its allies; it is a shadow of its former USSR and it’s bogged down in Ukraine. It has already lost Syria, its stated unconditional support to Venezuela has been shown to be worthless, and Cuba is the next domino to fall. That is clearly part of Mr. Rubio’s agenda, and if that happens, the Western Hemisphere is totally transformed. Every bad actor, from the Mexican cartels to the Columbian drug lords, are now quaking in their boots.

Now all this may not go down well–there are huge risks. But imagine a world where Venezuela is now a friendly very productive source of low cost oil, and not supporting drugs, and Cuba has a new government that is relatively friendly. And Iran is now friendly to all in the middle east. And Russia is defanged (Can Putin survive?). The axis of evil will have to look around and China will find itself very lonely. Maybe Xi Jingping can be best buds with Rocket Man. But with an American stranglehold of oil, both directly and through its friendly relationships with the Saudis and Iran, it really could be Pax Americana.

Donald Trump likes to go outside the box. And this is really, really outside the box. But there are reasonable ways to see that this could be at least as transformative as the fall of the Berlin wall. It is HUUUGGGEEE. Potentially. I pray for Mr. Rubio and Mr. Trump. If they get Venezuela right, we could see a radically safer world for the future.

* HT to innumerable online sources that I can’t recall so I won’t provide links. This has so many different angles, and a lot of people are making great observations about the potential implications, both positive and negative.