“Russia is never as strong, or as weak as she appears.” This quote, variations of it attributed to Otto Von Bismarck*, Winston Churchill and others, seems surely to be true. Putin himself put out a variation of it, “Russia was never so strong as it wants to be and never so weak as it is thought to be.”​ Many observers of the Russian conflict in Ukraine (including some here at BATG) assume that unless the West significantly engages in Ukraine’s defense (at the possible risk of nuclear war), that Russia will ultimately win because of its superior size (primarily population, but also economic). Putin continues to bluster, and has ruled out anything that allows Ukraine to be a sovereign state, albeit diminished in size. He will only be satisfied with a vassal state, with a friendly government next to him. Much of the feeling that Russia will prevail is also because “Russia cares more about Ukraine than we do.” That of course is true, but it is also irrelevant. Wars will never end until one side (at least) is unwilling to keep fighting. And it has been obvious for quite some time that the people of Ukraine, however war weary they are, understand that this conflict is existential to them. Any “peace” that could be achieved with Russia is only temporary until Russia regains its economic strength and comes to attack again. Only Ukraine’s complete submission would satisfy Russia, and Ukrainians do not want to be under the Russian boot. They have been before, and know what it would be like. On the other side, Putin’s “special military operation” has tried as much as possible to be invisible to the domestic Russians. Drawing forces almost exclusively from prisons and exterior non-Russian regions (and more recently North Koreans), Putin has attempted to appeal to ordinary Russians with comparisons to the patriotic efforts of WWII against nazism. Hence Putin’s framing this as a denazification effort. Yet with over a million casualties, the cost is high. Russia has blown through most of its foreign reserves, and shifting to a wartime economy has left peacetime products that Russians need much higher priced. With over one million young men fleeing Russia at the start of the war, to over one million casualties, to many men shifting to the production of military goods, there is far less domestic economic production. People in Moscow, while not allowed to talk about the war negatively, nonetheless feel it. They may buy the propaganda and actually believe the Ukrainians deserve what is happening to them, but they are increasingly feeling the pain.

This is in large part due to Ukraine’s rapid transformation and skills to produce their own effective and innovative drone production and warfare techniques. While perhaps more than Senator John McCain’s sneering “Russia is a gas station with nukes”, they are nevertheless critically dependent upon their ability to produce and export energy. And day by day Ukraine is making that increasingly difficult. While Russia’s vast land mass historically made it difficult to conquer, it also makes the various nodes of production and distribution facilities almost impossible to protect. As reported in the WSJ:

With the daily front-line moves measured in yards rather than dozens of miles, the long-distance air war matters more. Deep strikes were a one-way pursuit in 2022, with Russia hitting Ukraine at will. Now the development of Ukraine’s long-range drone industry is rapidly changing the balance of power. In recent weeks, dozens of Russian refineries as far as 800 miles away have been disabled and faraway military factories hit. No amount of air defenses can cover all these potential targets. “Back in the time of the czars, or Stalin, Russia’s great strength was that it was so big that it could always just absorb invading armies,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe. “Now that Ukraine has the ability to reach so deep into Russia and strike various parts of its infrastructure, that vastness has become a vulnerability.” The Russian oil-and-gas industry, which is the main source of currency for the Russian state, is particularly exposed, with key pipeline nodes, pumping stations and export ports within range. All in all, there are some 25 to 30 such highly sensitive points in western Russia, said Tamás Pletser, a regional oil-and-gas industry analyst at Erste Group in Budapest: “If you can bomb these, Russia is over.” If Russia is unable to refine, store or export its oil output, it would have to start shutting down wells—which would take many of them offline permanently, he added.

Russia has fought the last three years to almost no effect in Ukraine, garnering only about 1% more land mass at the cost of tremendous casualties. Further the territory they control is porous and both sides can move across the lines if desired. Experts suggest that the economic toll on Russia means Putin has about a year to get it done, or the costs really start to shut the economy down. Mr. Trump’s recent additional sanctions are helpful, but it would be really helpful to give the Ukrainians something (e.g., Tomahawks) that could seriously take out energy production/distribution facilities. While Ukrainians drones are effectively, their payload capacity is limited. Will there come a time when U.S. policy seeks to achieve a Ukrainian victory? Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have played to let Ukraine not lose. There is yet time to help them win.**

I’m somewhat optimistic that Mr. Trump will ultimately support Ukraine. Not because he wants to, but because the Russians are intransigient–they are forcing Mr. Trump to take actions he really doesn’t want. He doesn’t want to be the president that gave Ukraine to Russia (and he’s genuinely steamed by the fact that the war continues on his watch–he constantly asserts that the war wouldn’t have started if he would have been president {an assertion to which I’m sympathetic}). Mr. Trump, why not victory? Regardless, I’ve asserted many times that the U.S. interest is for Russia to bleed***, and I believe Ukraine will continue to make them do so, even at tremendous cost to themselves. I hope that Mr. Trump will provide aid to make the cost less going forward.

* While trying to verify this quote, I found many other great quotes from Von Bismark, but perhaps my favorite was this one: “Never fight with Russian. On your every stratagem they answer unpredictable stupidity.”

** Yes, yes I know. Russia threatens us with escalating and that will lead them to use tactical nukes. Could be, but the ones bearing that burden are primarily the Ukrainians, and they are asking for them. We need a steely eyed president willing to stare down Mr. Putin. Joe Biden was unable, and thus far, Mr. Trump is unwilling. Further, we have seen Russia’s increasing belligerence toward NATO with drone and aircraft excursions crossing into NATA territory. I agree with Mr. Trump; shoot the Russian planes down.

*** As I’ve asserted, After Iran, Russia has been the biggest source of international mischief in the last decade. The war in Ukraine has left them unable to continue to support key proxies, such as in Syria. The more they are bogged down in Ukraine, the less they have to cause mischief counter to our interests elsewhere.

EDIT Update

Here are some other reasons why you should be skeptical of Russian “strength”. From The Telegraph of London yesterday.