It is a good thing to reflect on election, to try and understand what voters wanted, and what they did not want. This is a very difficult task, one I’m glad our own MCS focuses as that’s certainly not my wheel house. Most of us are just arm-chair political scientists when we try to think about this, and it will likely take some time for really solid analysis to come out. Nevertheless, there seems to be some flashing themes on the surface. Yet we have to be very careful, as pretty much most of the early analyses will be full of confirmation bias–grabbing on to what we are already predisposed to believe. That includes me. Regular readers know that while I was highly supportive of many of Mr. Trump’s policies, I was also critical of him (both from a policy perspective, e.g., Tariff Man, and personal character). And his behavior post-election has put me almost completely in the never-Trumper camp going forward. Like most of America, I was surprised that there was not a more solid win for the Republicans. With the tremendous headwinds, both historical and political, how could Republicans not do exceptionally well? I was expecting sharp knives coming out after the election for Mr. Biden, yet instead, in large parts of the public discussion, they are coming for Mr. Trump. Consider this one (albeit from the Never-Trumper National Review) from Charles Cooke, the post seems to me to be undeniably true, even if Trumpians would object to some of the characterizations.

Trump is a loser. He squeaked past the most unpopular woman in America in 2016, he presided over a blue wave in 2018, he lost to a barely breathing Joe Biden in 2020, and he hand-picked a bevy of losing Republican nominees in 2022. Ron DeSantis is a winner. He beat the Democratic wave in 2018, he got the biggest challenge of the last four years — the Covid-19 pandemic — almost exactly right, and he won reelection by the largest margin achieved by any Republican gubernatorial nominee in Florida’s 177-year-history.

Cooke ends his missive with this rebuke of Trump:

The core conceit undergirding Trump’s position at the head of the party has long been that, unlike others, he wins. Sure, his apologists say, he may be crude and ill-disciplined and unpredictable and rough, but he’s the party’s only hope of keeping out the Democrats; he and he alone has shown that he can do that. Now, this is no longer true — if it ever was. Because of Trump, Joe Biden is the president of the United States. Because of Trump, John Fetterman will be a U.S. senator. Because of Trump, the two runoff elections in Georgia in 2021 yielded two Democratic senators, which yielded the American Rescue Plan, which yielded turbocharged inflation. Because of Trump, the Republican Party found itself unable to capitalize on a huge midterm opportunity to send the Democrats the stinging rebuke that they so richly deserved.

The editorial board of the WSJ offered this:

The larger failure was that the GOP nominated too many lousy candidates who courted Donald Trump more than they did voters. They fed his ego about the “stolen” 2020 election but then were vulnerable to Democratic attacks (however exaggerated) that Republicans threatened democracy. The Democratic strategy of spending money to help MAGA candidates win primaries was cynical, but it worked. Every one of those candidates lost.

(Edit addition) Or consider this from David Bahnsen:

There is no narrative that leads to any conclusion other than this out of Tuesday night’s results. Did Dobbs cause Herschel Walker to tie while Brian Kemp won by 8 percent in the same state? Did Dobbs hurt Republican congressional candidates in Ohio but not New York and New Jersey? I am open to the idea that Dobbs had marginal impact in some races (yet also unfazed by such, because of my fondness for human life and the U.S. Constitution), but to ignore the obvious takeaway from 2018, 2020, and now 2022 requires a willful refusal to see something in front of you punching you in the face.

Much of Trumpism remains popular. Donald Trump is not. Not with women. Not with independents. Not with moderates. Not with young people. Not with college graduates. Not with a statistically meaningful enough part of the electorate that his presence, aura, and input will do anything other than cost us elections.

“But he fights.” Well, he loses.

“He did a lot of good.” Yes, he did. But he also cost us the House, Senate, and White House.

I’m grateful that Mr. Trump was president during a critical time to appoint three imperfect but solid conservatives to the Supreme Court. I’m grateful that though abortion is still all too prevalent and winning politically in many ballot boxes, the issue is now in our hands to educate and fight through the democratic process. Mr. Trump gets a lot of the credit for this. And don’t miss this, because of Mr. Trump’s standing for life, there are thousands of babies that are now being born that would have died under the hands of an abortionist. Yet I’m with the consensus of a lot of the thought on the right–much of the havoc of the we are now experiencing courtesy of Mr. Biden is due to Mr. Trump’s post-election conduct that cost Republicans the Senate, and now has at least stopped what should have been a Republican wave.

You can go on and on (with analyses from left to center to right-leaning media)–Mr. Trump is getting the blame. I don’t think Humpty-Dumpty will be able to be put back together. The Republican Party can do better. And, I’m now confident, will do better in 2024.