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I don’t believe “The” Science!

08 Oct 2020

One of the most laughable claims of politicians these days is that we must believe “The” science. Last night’s debate with Ms. Harris and Mr. Pence just reiterated this claim. It’s a weapon mostly of the left, at least this election cycle. With respect to Covid-19, Mr. Biden (and therefore Ms. Harris) says we must trust the science. Likewise, you must agree with the whole climate change agenda or you are against “The” science.

Yet this idea is absurd on many dimensions as a matter of reason, but there is no mistaking that it’s good politics. As a matter of reason, there is no such thing as “The” science; there are ideas and theories that individual scientists have, and these often conflict. We test these ideas and theories against the evidence, with claims that are more strongly supported by evidence usually (but not always!) embraced with the tentative understanding that this is the best we know today. Of course, any scientific conclusion today may be in the dustbin tomorrow–it’s the nature of the beast.

With Covid-19 especially, when there is little understanding (and we have learned a lot in the last six months) to lock in at any one point to a particular scientist’s view–no matter how eminent that scientist is–is simply foolishness. There are always going to be competing claims, and further, it is not simply one type of scientist that we should listen to. Should we not listen to the voices of mental health professionals as well as epidemiologists? Do the voices of economists have any place in the discussion? What about the ethicists?

There are dissenting voices, but in this age of Trump rage, they are not listened to. Here is one group that argues that we are completely off-track with respect to Covid-19, and should be pursuing a form of herd immunity*. Now I’m not able to assess their particular expertise, but I am quite confident that these eminent scientists are all much more knowledgable about this issue than Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris, or Donald Trump. So should we listen to them? Why is their science not to be listened to, while other scientists should be? If 51% of “the” scientists agree with something, does that make this scientific consensus written on new tablets of stone? There is no escaping political judgment in the inherent tradeoffs that come with any complex issue, so we need to recognize this and repudiate any politician’s claim that there is any one particular scientific view that is certain.

I’m also particularly suspicious of Mr. Biden and the Democrat’s claim that they want to follow the science when they are so unwilling to follow economic science. Mr. Biden has jumped on the Fight for $15 nonsense which will harm the lowest rung of the economic ladder the most.** I suspect politicians support of science conveniently aligns with what they believe will help their electoral prospects and/or their a priori beliefs.

* Before you tilt on this, you should listen to their argument. Even if you are a scientist in this area, I suspect you’ll learn something.

** I’m anticipating some readers will say that I should have the same tentativeness with respect to the minimum wage that I’m advocating for Covid-19. Two responses. First, I’m not against any particular scientist from arguing from their particular discipline that there is consensus (assuming there is) on a particular fact of covid-19, e.g., perhaps the transmission mechanism of the virus, and arguing vigorously for a limited conclusion. What I’m suggesting is that complex issues are going to have many different issues at play, and are far more likely to need nuance. Second, minimum wage is not complex at all in what I’m arguing–it’s simply a question of whether demand curves slope downward. And yes they do. No one seriously argues that there will be no impact from the minimum wage. Advocates usually will say there is not much impact, and/or the benefits to those getting higher wages are worth the harms to others (which they believe to be small). I reject the utilitarian calculus they employ.

Edit Update: I needed some caffeine earlier; lots of typos. Think I got ’em now!