The Democrats just concluded the first round of debates for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination. Here are some quick observations:

1. We have a tendency to overvalue these early skirmishes. We are still many months ahead of any caucus or primary and most voters have not tuned into the process. Inexperienced candidates are learning on the job and may look and feel different if they can hang in the race long enough.
2. It is also probably true that some candidacies will not survive the past 48 hours. Failure to stand out in a crowded field could be fatal, even this early. Unless they are self-financed, most campaigns will need significant funds to move forward. Several candidates may limp along to build up post-election opportunities, but it hard to see Bennet, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Gillibrand, Swalwell, Inslee, Ryan, or De Blasio getting much traction.
3. Andrew Yang deserves a fair hearing. He tried to obey the debate rules, was substantive in his responses, and seems creative in his approach to problems. At the same time, he is not overly telegenic, comes across as soft-spoken and bookish, and seems unwilling to fight for the sake of fighting. The format, combined with the clear agendas of the moderators, who gave frontrunners far more air time, was most unkind to Yang in my opinion. Of course, a stronger party system would have funneled him toward a lower-level office, which may be the best outcome if he wants to stay in politics.
4. In a presidential culture not obsessed with “feels” or laugh lines, Amy Klobuchar would be a strong contender. She reeks of substance, has strong opinions and plans, and is attempting to steer away from the unreasonable promises pouring out of the other campaigns. In this world, she is doomed.
5. My hunch is that three of the Bs will suffer. Beto, Biden, and Bernie might see some slippage in their poll numbers. I found Biden not just old, but old-fashioned for this Democratic party. Bernie’s schtick worked in a small field where he stood out as an insurgent challenging Mrs. Clinton’s coronation. His authenticity was part of his charm. During the past four years, the party has positioned itself closer to Bernie. He is no longer radical, which means people might focus more on his presentation, which can be grating. Beto misunderstood the media adulation from his run in Texas. A failed Senate campaign is rarely a good springboard. Beto is not ready for this. Another B, Booker, probably did himself some good this week.
6. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is also not ready for this. Rhetorically, he is strong. Intellectually, he can handle the job. A term or two as Indiana’s governor, if he could win, or a stint in the U.S. Senate, would serve him well. He is just a few sprinkles of seasoning from being qualified.
7. Kamala Harris is a gifted politician. She attacked Biden openly and she aimed for his biggest vulnerabilities. He responded, but seemed rocked. On paper, she probably presents Trump’s biggest challenge, but she is opening herself up to being demonized as a radical on executive power, gun control, immigration, and health care. If she mobilizes and inspires African Americans, it may not matter.
8. Elizabeth Warren suffered not due to her performance, but her slot on Wednesday night. She did not dominate in that setting, and the heavyweights fought without her. I am not sure that has long term consequences.
9. Marianne Williamson was great theater. In some ways, she is brave to subject herself to this, but she may lack self-awareness. She is compelling, sort of like a magnificent aunt who inspires devotion but not confidence. You love her and hope the world does not destroy her oddity, but you pray she is never forced to make an important decision for others. In a delicate time and place, her earnestness would shield her from ridicule. We left delicacy behind some time ago.
10. Typically, general election debates don’t matter much. Most partisans watch them for confirmation instead of persuasion. Primary debates, especially with large fields full of unknowns, which is true here, can matter. The Invisible Primary still rages. The candidates are scrambling for endorsements, fundraising, and volunteers. They are seeking the perception of viability. If they get it, they can turn these ingredients into the fuel they need to continue the struggle. We will see soon whether these debates mattered.