Watching the debt deal play out was not particularly good theater, as each step on the way was perfectly predictable. There was almost never a chance of actual default, and with divided government we were always going to end up with some lukewarm agreement that satisfied almost nobody. But that is the democratic process. Nevertheless, I’ll offer the following observations.

First, the debt deal continues to impoverish the nation. The original ten year Biden plan would have added $20T to the almost $32T national debt over the next decade, and even the Republican bill passed in the house would have added $14T. The final deal is estimated to save only $1.5T from the Biden baseline. Yet there were meaningful cuts and procedural changes that will allow conservatives to fight again even in this year’s budget debates. I’m always skeptical of ten-year forecasts because invariably the cuts are always included at the end (and never materialize) while they spend more today. Yet the bill passed will restrict spending next year. The rudder was slightly nudged in a positive direction.

Second, Republicans did not even try to address the main driver of our debt, the explosive growth in entitlement spending. With Donald Trump joining Joe Biden as the champion for status quo entitlement spending, there is no hope for any serious dealing with the debt until a new leader emerges and/or the rising costs of servicing our debt increasingly become exponential. And the clock is ticking.

Third, this seems to me to be an unmitigated victory politically for Speaker McCarthy. He handled his caucus well, and consistently out-messaged the White House. Mr. Biden’s insistence that he would only sign a clean debt bill was always nonsense as elections do have consequences. When Mr. McCarthy was able to pass a debt limit increase through the House, the die was cast.

Fourth, conservative carping that McCarthy’s deal didn’t get much debt reduction is both true and irrelevant. Republicans have an incredibly slim majority in the House, and they don’t hold the Senate, the Presidency or the media. There was never going to be much of a cut. And every one of these conservative critics understands that math. As an aside, until those conservative critics are willing to take on Donald Trump’s continuing fiscal irresponsibility, then there is little reason to believe they are serious, and more reason to believe they simply politically posturing.

This is a win for conservatives, even if it really is only a small one. Until we get more true conservatives elected, we’re not likely to get much better. And that includes having a president not named Trump or Biden.