Harold Macmillan, former Prime Minister of the UK, was once asked what was the most difficult part of leading government, to which he replied, “Events, my dear boy, events.” In some cases events come at you unawares, e.g., Mr. Trump’s failed battle against Covid-19. Others come at least in part due to your own actions. Mr. Biden’s own fall clearly began with the utter debacle of his failed retreat in Afghanistan. That was the point in his presidency that public opinion of Mr. Biden began to erode–the beginning of a decline from which he was never able to reverse (due mostly to his other failed policies). But as I warned at the time,

I have no confidence in his decision-making or his personal integrity to handle any tough issue, and this humiliating defeat for the U.S. (and the whole western alliance) is only going to embolden other actors who hate our values. When your policies are condemned by your friends and cheered by your enemies, you should know something isn’t quite right. (emphasis added for this post)

It was perfectly predictable that Mr. Biden’s weakness would lead to “events, dear boy, events.” When Mr. Putin saw this weakness, he only waited a few months to put 70,000 troops on the Ukrainian border. Mr. Biden’s response? If the Russians only had a “minor incursion” it wouldn’t be all that bad. But it wouldn’t be a minor incursion; weakness is provocative, after all. At every step of the way, Mr. Biden has been behind the curve–afraid of “escalation.” Mr. Putin escalates again and again, and we merely react. If Mr. Biden would have given more weapons (and more effective weapons) early on, the Russians would not have been able to dig in. But we are here, rapidly coming up to year three of the war. The repeated pattern of Ukraine asking for weapons and aid, to be denied for month after month (allowing untold thousands more to die and much destruction) and finally given, has just been repeated by the Biden Administration. Reports are coming out that the Ukrainians are now able to use long range attack missiles deep within Russian territory. Russia has been attacking any site within Ukraine for the entire war, including almost daily attacks on civilians and critical humanitarian infrastructure (e.g., power and water for cities), and yet they could safely be clear of advanced weapons being used against their military capabilities further within the country. But no more. Mr. Putin’s provocation of bringing North Korean troops into the conflict has Mr. Biden reacting once again.

Most people want peace, and I am one of them. But I’m also a realist. War ends only when one party reaches the point that it is no longer willing to fight, and the cost of surrender is less than the cost of continuing the war. And Mr. Putin has much bigger goals than just the Donbas region, just as he had bigger goals than Georgia (in 2008) and Crimea (2014). He has told us; we should listen to him.

In foreign policy, Mr. Biden is finishing as he began. Too little, too late. But better late than never.*

* In this post, I’m not addressing the criticisms from the conservative leftists like MTG that Mr. Biden shouldn’t be doing this since President-elect Trump is going to bring peace. This release only helps Mr. Trump gain a deal; the more pain the Ukrainians are able to inflict on Russia, the more they will be willing to seriously negotiate when Mr. Trump takes office. But for better or worse, Mr. Biden is president today. Peace through strength, as Mr. Trump repeatedly avers he holds to, begins with strength.