Since my erstwhile Berean colleague, Mark Caleb Smith, is absent without leave, we are thirsting for sound political commentary. But since I’m writing this post, it’s doubtful you’ll get it here. After all, economists understand tradeoffs and opportunity costs, but politics? Not so much. Nevertheless, I’ll share my current observations and see if any of them resonate with you.

First up, is it seems to me that there is no denying that the last month has been brutal for President Trump. All the media are clearly in the tank for Mr. Biden. I’ve even been amazed at the Drudgereport. I typically look at it simply because Drudge has a reputation to get early breaking stories up first, and despite the clickbait headlines, some of it I find useful to tee up a subject. Drudge has tended more conservative over the years (he is staunchly pro-life, or at least was at one time), but the headlines for the last month have strangely looked like the rest of the media, putting non-stop links that seem designed to discourage supporters of Mr. Trump, with headlines to match. And while I think Mr. Trump has stepped all over himself, I am very skeptical of the magnitude.

Second is I don’t trust the polls. I think we are in unprecedented Rage at Trump, and the usual issue of Republicans under-polling (i.e., unwilling to admit you are going to vote for a Republican to someone who asks) seems to me to be much higher with the elite opinion that Mr. Trump and his supporters are a bunch of troglodytes (and all racists too!). I don’t think this would effect the base–they’re loud and proud of their beloved Mr. Trump. But someone that is truly in the middle admitting they’re going to vote for Trump? Not gonna happen. I do trust the delta from a month ago (to a degree), but I don’t know where reality was before that, so its hard to say.

Turnout as always is the key. Democrats clearly have the edge in early voting. That normally means something. I think? MCS, where are you when we need you? 🙂 But in a Covid-19 era where we now have politicized the virus (it’s Mr. Biden’s main theme after all), Democrats are going to mail in the vote much more often than the Republicans, who want to make sure their votes count by voting in person. What will the turnout be for Mr. Trump? Hard to say, which is why I think the press has been non-stop negative on Mr. Trump, and why Facebook and Twitter are spiking stories that might energize people for Trump. Got to discourage the sleeping Trumpians! Interesting issue for the Democrats is their rabid embracement of mail in voting may cost them, as its reported that mail in votes have a far higher likelihood of being disqualified due to error. Won’t matter in CA and other liberal strongholds; indeed it may help them have record numbers. But in a close battleground state could it make a difference? I think it might.

Then there is Amy. Is there a better way for those of us that have to tightly hold our nose (and try to close our ears) at some of Mr. Trump’s antics to get a better attitude toward him? Reportedly Mr. Trump delayed nominating her last time to hold her for the RBG seat. And we say that Mr. Trump has no political instincts? Absolutely brilliant, and she is absolutely wonderful. In an age where we have to question the sanity of much of America, the heartland is screaming through and I’m stoked. And I don’t think I’m alone. And then I remember what the Democrats did to Bret Kavanaugh, and I remember Mr. Trump staunchly supporting him when most Republican presidents would have caved, and…I don’t think quite so badly of Mr. Trump’s performance.

Finally there is Mr. Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis. That was a big blow and no doubt contributed to his decline in polls. But his short stint in the hospital and his robust engagement now I think will help. I listened to his campaign rally a couple of nights ago to see his condition, and his lung capacity seemed undiminished. You may not like what he’s saying, but his very saying it puts Mr. Biden’s fear of Covid “above all else” to lie. While infections are rising, death rates are down and the data are pretty clear–you’re not that likely to die unless you were likely to die from something else anyway (i.e., all the people over 85). It wasn’t that way at first, but with the therapeutics we have now and much better treatment now that we know more, should we really continue to shut down our way of life when it’s just not that risky? Two and a half more weeks of Mr. Trump’s robust energetic campaigning combined with Mr. Biden’s “I’ll shut it down again” is going to help Mr. Trump at the margin.

But is that enough?