Attorney General Bill Barr released a letter to Congress that highlights the key findings of the Mueller report. Barr’s summary has several elements. First, he details the scope of the investigation, which was dramatic. Second, Barr portrays Mueller’s findings on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, which were significant and unprecedented. Third, Barr says the investigation did not establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. Fourth, Mueller did not draw a firm conclusion on obstruction of justice. Instead, according to Barr, Mueller showed evidence on both sides of the question, thereby leaving it fully up to the Department of Justice to determine how to proceed. As the letter says, “The Special Counsel states that ‘while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.’” Barr says based on the evidence, there is insufficient evidence to prove a criminal offense.
President Trump is declaring a total victory. He claims the report is evidence of zero collusion and obstruction. This is not quite true. The summary–remember, we have not seen the report–indicates there is no ability to establish collusion, which is a different statement. There could be evidence, but it is not conclusive. Also, it seems there is evidence of the campaign’s willingness to get information, but that is not collusion or conspiracy. Also, the summary pointedly says the issue of obstruction was complicated and arguments were presented on both sides, which means it was not an open and shut matter.
Democrats have taken the matter as simply a bump on the road. The outcome, so far, does not make Mr. Trump more credible in their minds. Instead, it feels like they are looking for another hammer. Expect their discussion to move on to tax returns, emoluments, and business dealings in general. Finally, the report will likely contain enough evidence to continue their congressional investigations.
While seeing the final report will allow for a more comprehensive response, there are some preliminary conclusions. As it stands now, this is a massive win for Mr. Trump. While it may not change the political dynamics surrounding Trump, it probably makes him stronger for 2020. It also gives him another weapon in his war against the media.
The media might emerge from this most damaged compared to other institutions. Too many pundits were breathless in their anticipation of what Mueller would find. Too many claimed collusion was a slam dunk. Too many aired unsubstantiated allegations by Democratic politicians, like Adam Schiff (D-CA), without push-back or balance. The left-leaning media is scarred, perhaps permanently in the minds of many.
At the same time, Mr. Trump has not behaved well throughout this entire process. While his supporters will likely forget, Trump deliberately sought to undermine the investigation from the beginning. He went out of his way to savage his first Attorney General Jeff Sessions for his decision to recuse himself from the inquiry. Sessions’ status as an early, elite Trump backer purchased him no sympathy or patience from his boss.
Trump used Twitter to discredit Mueller at every turn. This behavior puts Trump in an awkward position for a mortal politician, but our president appears immune to whatever normally fells other figures. He did his best to destroy Mueller, but Trump now has to praise his foe’s report since it seems to benefit the president. The disjunction should be noted.
At its core, this is what alarms me most about Mr. Trump’s actions during the past two years. Let’s assume the final report is reflective of both the summary and reality and that nothing resembling collusion or conspiracy took place. How do you explain Mr. Trump’s behavior in light of this finding? Why seek to destroy Mueller, a loyal public servant who has literally put his life in the balance for his country when you know there is nothing to fear? Why publicly and privately humiliate Sessions, one of your most loyal and important supporters when there is no possibility of a negative outcome? I am sure his proponents will argue that Trump had no choice but to counteract the media coverage by going on the offensive. Even if you buy that, consider the many means at Mr. Trump’s disposal. His choice of weapons reveals much.
More than any other figure, Mueller comes forward for now intact. He suffered first at the hands of the president and his partisans. Now he will be targeted by the Democrats. In the end, he hired a largely Democratic staff and spent time and money to conduct a massive investigation. The scope, which has been used against Mueller in the past, now favors him. He can claim, rightly, that if he was unable to find evidence, it either does not exist or it resists discovery. He walked into this post with broad, bipartisan support as a fair broker and a patriot. I trust he will reclaim this image in time. His experience, though, will discourage similarly minded men and women from stepping forward in the future.
No matter what you think, the entire Mueller enterprise has poisoned our body politic. In a stable system that respected the rule of law, Mueller would have been left at least in public peace by all parties. He would have been respected as a symbol of the importance of due process and of the hope that impartiality might still be brought to bear by those working in the national interest. Instead, we beheld a tragic circus, where elites of every stripe revealed their cravenness.