U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) declared his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. What was a few weeks ago an empty field has now grown to three contenders, all first-term Senators. Of these, I think Rubio is the strongest. Let’s compare them quickly.

Ted Cruz

• Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012, and has Cuban lineage through his father, who fled the Castro regime
• Was Solicitor General for Texas and argued nine cases before the U.S. Supreme Court
• Strengths:
  • Raw intelligence
  • Ability to articulate a defensible political philosophy
  • Clear agenda
  • Tea Party darling
• Weaknesses:
  • Hard-edged rhetoric might be off-putting
  • Relative lack of experience in foreign policy and practical politics
  • Has few political or policy accomplishments from time in the Senate
  • Has alienated party establishment and fellow Senators

Rand Paul

• Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010 and has roots in his father’s libertarianism.
• Is a trained and practicing ophthalmologist.
• Strengths:
  • Bold and creative thinker who is unbound by convention
  • Generally coherent ideology that stands in stark contrast with most Republicans, which distinguishes him
  • Touches on issues that could appeal to people outside the GOP, so he could, in theory, expand the party’s base
• Weaknesses
  • Relative lack of experience, especially in foreign affairs
  • Has few political or policy achievements from his time in the Senate
  • Libertarianism will likely turn off large chunks of the Republican electorate, much less the general electorate
  • Poor connections to traditional Republicans
  • Appears indecisive on foreign affairs

Marco Rubio

• Elected to the U.S. Senate in 2010, has Cuban lineage
• Served as Florida’s Speaker of the House
• Strengths:
  • Charismatic and likable on camera
  • Worked more effectively within the Republican Party in the Senate and should have good establishment and fundraising ties. See the Lee-Rubio tax plan as an example.
  • Broadly conservative in a way that cuts across Republican sub-groups without alienating them
• Weaknesses
  • Supported immigration reform that turned out to be unpopular among Republicans
  • Relative lack of experience in foreign affairs
  • Can point to few policy or political achievements in Senate

How does this shake out for Republicans? I agree with FiveThirtyEight‘s contention that Rubio is the first real contender to emerge in the Republican field. Why? He is conservative enough without appearing to be radical. He has a compelling story and his political skills are formidable. He is from an important swing state and he is close enough to the GOP establishment without being perceived to be its pawn.

Of the lightly qualified U.S. Senators to declare, Rubio seems the strongest of the bunch, at least as of now. I still think, ideally, he would be better off if he waited until 2020 or 2024, but that is probably fanciful given the media environment in which we find ourselves. President Obama’s inexperience has cost us, especially abroad.

What do you think?