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Trade manipulation never works out quite the way you planned

27 Sep 2018

We’ve posted earlier on some of the perverse results and unintended consequences of Mr. Trump’s trade policies, but today’s WSJ highlights yet more.  First, aluminum producers are finding their profits down even while aluminum prices are up, because the integrated global economy and the current division of labor have critical inputs whose prices are driven higher by Mr. Trump’s policies.  In this case,

The sanctions have pushed up prices for aluminum’s key ingredient, alumina, eating into the profits of U.S. producers, analysts and aluminum makers say. It takes about two tons of alumina to make one ton of aluminum and companies that had previously purchased the white powdery material from Rusal, which makes 6% of the world’s alumina, have been scrambling to get supplies from other producers, squeezing limited supplies.  Production curbs at the world’s largest alumina refinery in Brazil and a strike by workers at aluminum giant Alcoa Corp have also put pressure on alumina prices. Through mid-September, alumina prices had surged about 60% from a year ago to $625 a metric ton, according to London commodities researcher CRU Research.

And over in the bad to worse category, Mr. Trump’s policies that are hurting agricultural prices, are supposed to be mitigated by his government subsidies to farmers.  So we have to have corporate welfare to make up for the pain we’re inflicting on American businesses.  But reports from agriculture continue to show that the subsidies (as bad as they are to the taxpayer’s pocketbook), are not remotely going to cover the damage of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

Mike Paustian, an Iowa pork producer who sells some 30,000 pigs annually, expects to receive about $40,000. Depending on the size of his crops, Mr. Paustian said he could receive another $20,000 for his 1,400 acres of corn and soybeans. In recent years, a farm of that size could make some $4 million in annual sales on the livestock alone.  Mr. Paustian said he appreciates what he sees as a goodwill gesture from the Trump administration. But he said he worries the trade fights will close doors to American pork and other farm goods while the world’s appetite for meat is growing. “This payment isn’t going to save anybody’s life,” Mr. Paustian said about aid offered by the USDA. “It’ll soften the blow a little bit.” Prices for lean hogs have fallen 19% since the end of May.

Our economy doesn’t need an industrial policy by Mr. Trump or Mr. Obama, just let the government stick to its essential functions and we’ll be just fine.