There is an eternity between now and the mid-term elections of 2014, so take everything that follows with many grains of your own favorite preservative. However, things are shaping up poorly for the Democrats. I will try to unpack these themes in more detail in future, post-holiday posts, but there are three relevant issues. One, mid-term elections are generally bad for the president’s party, especially during a second term in office. Second, there are several vulnerable Democrats in the U.S. Senate. We discussed Mark Pryor (D-AR) here, but Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Mark Begich (D-AK), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) are also facing stiff challenges. Third, according to a New York Times poll, Obamacare is profoundly unpopular. Even among uninsured Americans, only 1/3 expect the law to improve the health care system, and a majority of adults are unconvinced the law will be beneficial at all.

How will this play out politically? See below for a new advertisement against Shaheen in New Hampshire.