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Obama’s Decision Puts GOP in a Box

21 Nov 2014

President Obama’s Executive Order (which essentially places about five million illegal immigrants beyond the reach of federal law enforcement) is now, it seems, a matter of history. The media have, for a while, fixated on how the decision might influence current political dynamics, as opposed to examining the propriety of the act itself. Now that the decision is public, it is fair to ask what this means for the short-term political future.

Regardless of his motivations to help illegal immigrants, the political outcome might be to permanently hobble the Republican Party. How does it damage the G.O.P.?

First, it puts the Republicans in an awkward position with Hispanic voters by forcing them to object to Obama’s methods, which are likely unconstitutional, while trying not to offend those who benefit from the executive action. Rhetorically, this is a tough nut to crack.

Second, it further cements the relationship between Hispanics and the Democrat party by highlighting the act through controversy. If Democrats succeed on this front, the party may be able, over time, to make typically red states (like Texas and Arizona) more competitive, thereby weakening the Republican base in the South.

Republicans have a variety of options to counter the President. The congressional quiver is not, regardless how much members often protest, devoid of weapons.  Here is a rough array of possibilities.

I don’t think there is an obvious GOP response. So, what do you all think? What should the GOP do? Should they respond? What do you think of Obama’s order?